HAYABUSA RESEARCH

Living Research

Research is a continuing conversation with the evidence.

Traditional research freezes an opinion at publication. Markets do not. Living Research keeps the current thesis, catalysts and decision-relevant evidence in one place while preserving what we believed before.

Active Living Research coverage

Active Coverage

AI · MACRO Active Coverage

AI Bubble Watch

Last updated October 21, 2026 · Living Research v1.1

Current Question Can the AI infrastructure boom convert genuine demand into sustainable cash returns before financing and power constraints trigger a broader investment-cycle unwind?

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Current Risk Assessment

CAUTIONFive-stage framework · Elevated

AI demand remains real. Credit repricing and delays in converting contracted compute into energized capacity are raising risk. Broad systemic contagion is not established.

Next Evidence Check

November 20, 2026 · Financing conditions, powered deployments and hyperscaler cash returns

NVDA Active Coverage

NVIDIA

Last updated October 23, 2026

Current Question Can faster AI deployment translate into healthier customer economics and durable cash earnings for NVIDIA?

Next Evidence Check Q3 FY2027 results and filing: collections, cash flow and support obligations · exact release date not yet verified

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MU Active Coverage

Micron Technology

Last updated October 23, 2026

Current Question Can stronger customer commitments and AI memory demand protect Micron’s earnings when scarcity pricing fades?

Next Evidence Check Fiscal Q1 2027 results: pricing, contract execution, cash conversion and capacity · exact reporting date not yet verified

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META Active Coverage

Meta Platforms

Last updated October 22, 2026

Current Question Can Meta turn one of the largest AI infrastructure buildouts in the world into enough incremental advertising, subscription, enterprise and platform economics to justify the capital?

Next Evidence Check Post-Q3: incremental AI returns, free cash flow and 2027 capital spending · next disclosure TBA

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SPCX Active Coverage

SpaceX ($SPCX)

Last updated October 23, 2026

Current Question Can Starlink become a national carrier without inheriting carrier economics?

Next Catalyst Signed tower agreements, deployment schedules and supplier confirmations.

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How Living Research Works

The current view can change. The historical record does not. Each coverage page is designed to show what matters now, what would change our view and how the thesis has evolved.

Current View Stays Current

The top of each page reflects the latest Hayabusa read, current question, next catalyst and the evidence we are watching.

History Stays Visible

Dated research is preserved in the timeline rather than rewritten. Readers can see what changed and when.

Updates Require Evidence

Routine headlines do not need a new thesis. We update when evidence changes an assumption, a decision or the next test.